By Andres Oppenheimer
President Trump, who had promised to fix the economy and broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine “on the first day of my presidency,” will mark his 100th day in office on April 30. Even some of his biggest supporters now say he has been a disaster.
The stock market’s S&P 500 index fell by nearly 10% between Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration and April 23 — the worst drop for any president’s first three months in office since the Great Depression, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on both allies and adversaries — which he has partially rolled back after a global outcry — have prompted the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to forecast a global economic slowdown. The IMF now projects the world economy will grow by 2.8% this year, down from 3.3% last year.
International travel to the United States has fallen sharply since Trump began his second term. Reports of German and Canadian tourists arrested during mass deportations made worldwide headlines. In March, the number of foreign visitors was down nearly 12% from the same month last year, according to the U.S. International Trade Administration.
Instead of earning more respect from the rest of the world, as Trump had promised, his vows to take over Greenland, retake the Panama Canal and make Canada the 51st U.S. state have made America a laughingstock abroad. Meanwhile, China’s dictatorship couldn’t be happier with Washington’s break from its traditional allies, and with Trump’s near total cuts of foreign aid and pro-democracy programs to Africa and Latin America.
Trump’s attacks on America’s democratic institutions have not gone unnoticed. His blanket clemency for the 1,600 insurrectionists who stormed the Capitol and wounded dozens of police officers on Jan. 6, 2021, and his deportations of many immigrants without due process have gone far beyond what many of his voters expected.
Not surprisingly, polls reflect Trump’s growing unpopularity. A new poll by the pro-Trump Fox News network shows that 55% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s overall job performance, while 44% approve of it. The latest Pew Research poll has Trump’s overall approval rate at 40%.
The clearest and most succinct criticism of Trump’s performance that I’ve heard so far did not come from his Democratic rivals, or from foreign leaders, but from Miami billionaire and Trump mega-donor Ken Griffin.
Griffin, CEO of the Citadel hedge fund, said at the Semafor World Economy Summit on April 23 that Trump’s trade war may have done irreparable damage to the United States by destroying its image as the most respected world power.
“The United States was more than just a nation. It’s a brand. It’s a universal brand, whether it’s our culture, our financial strength, our military strength,” Griffin said. “It was like an aspiration for most of the world. And we’re eroding that brand now.”
Indeed, the United States owes much of its economic might to the long-lasting perception overseas that it’s a rule-based country.
When I was a child growing up in Argentina, my parents — like most of their middle-class friends — saved in U.S. dollars, as most Latin Americans have continued to do. The U.S. currency was universally seen as the safest protection against economic debacles or autocrats’ whims.
But since Trump announced his insane tariff war on the rest of the world, many foreigners have started selling their U.S. dollars and U.S. Treasury bonds to diversify their savings.
“No brand compares to the brand of the U.S. Treasuries — the strength of the US dollar and the strength and creditworthiness of U.S. Treasuries. No brand came close,” Griffin said. “We put that brand at risk.”
The U.S. dollar has depreciated against the euro and other world currencies over the past three months.
“The dollar is starting to behave like a Latin American currency,” Harvard University professor Ricardo Hausmann told me. “Many people are fleeing from the dollar, fleeing from U.S. Treasury bonds.”
XP Securities chief global strategist Alberto Bernal, until recently an enthusiastic Trump supporter, wrote last week that if Trump continues his trade war throughout the rest of the year, the U.S. economy will likely fall into a “deep recession.”
“I supported Trump because of his promised tax cuts, but I never imagined that he would raise tariffs to their highest levels since the Great Depression,” Bernal told me.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump backtracks further on his reckless tariffs, fires his chief trade adviser Peter Navarro, blames him for the “Liberation Day” fiasco, and claims a string of imaginary trade victories. But the damage is already done.
As Griffin put it, America’s 200-year-old brand has been damaged. And, I would add, as we approach the first 100 days of Trump’s second term, that the damage already looks so bad that I wonder whether it can be restored anytime soon.
Don’t miss the “Oppenheimer Presenta” TV show on Sundays at 9 pm E.T. on CNN en Español. Blog: andresoppenheimer.com
